31.02.230 Urban growth area designation policies

31.02.230 Urban growth area designation policies.

The following policies guide designation of urban growth areas. These policies were adopted by Clallam County and the cities in June 1992 as a framework for the adoption of each jurisdiction’s comprehensive plan. In most cases, the policies cannot be changed without concurrence from the cities.

(1) Minimum urban growth areas (UGAs) shall be established based upon land use demand as determined by the Clallam County twenty (20) year forecast of population for the County and specified subareas, so long as the County-wide forecast is not less than the most recent forecasts available from the Office of Financial Management (OFM). The County shall provide forecasts for the designation of urban growth areas.

(a) A straight linear projection for the entire County utilizing data from the 1950 through 1990 U.S. Census yields a projection which is approximately 2,000 people higher than that determined from summing the individual census divisions. Linear projections of population, as shown in Table 2 below, have demonstrated their accuracy in Clallam County. If used based on 1950 through 1970 U.S. Census counts, a linear projection model would have predicted the 1990 population as later identified in the U.S. Census. This demonstrates that historically the County has followed a linear trend of growth over the long term.

The Growth Management Act and County-wide Planning Policies use the OFM analysis prepared for Clallam County as a basis for growth population projection. Since the projections, however, are inaccurate (the County has exceeded the 2012 projection by over 3,000 people already in 1994), a linear projection model should be substituted as required in the County-wide Planning Policies. The OFM population projections utilize trends of births, deaths and migration to forecast County growth. Historical trends indicate that overall births and net migration are both declining, and deaths are increasing. The most subjective standard is net migration. Clallam County protested the OFM population forecast in 1991-92 but were told by the agency that they were “minimums” to plan for. Since several Growth Hearings Board cases have ruled the numbers to be also a maximum, the agency has written Clallam County to indicate that we are in an “awkward” position. The following projections were completed by OFM in the report dated January 31,1992:

Table 1. OFM Population Projections
	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2012
Population	56,464	57,754	58,246	58,753	59,189	59,312
Note: OFM estimated the 1994 Clallam County population as follows: County 62,500 Unincorporated 36,700 Forks 3,355 Port Angeles 18,310 Sequim 4,135

(b) The County subarea population projections should be based either on a straight line (linear) projection model or on the subarea growth rate for the preceding ten (10) years. For the purposes of designating urban growth areas, a linear projection is preferred. For other planning purposes, the last ten (10) year subarea growth rate should be compared to a straight line projection and a determination made regarding which projection is most appropriate.

(c) The urban growth area population projections should encourage a shift from growth in unincorporated areas to urban areas, consistent with the intent of the Growth Management Act. The urban growth area population projections should also reflect subarea growth trends, in that growth usually occurs based on geographic preference (schools, climate, jobs, etc.). (Please refer to Appendix B: Population Trends in County-wide Planning Policies.)

(d) The County population forecasts should be reviewed every five (5) years. Such review shall include an analysis of the previous ten (10) year period.

Table 2. Linear Projection Model* (Census Divisions Names)
	1990 Population	2000 Population	2010 Population
Agnew-Carlsborg	6,310	7,514	8,719
Clallam Bay-Neah Bay	2,966	3,298	3,630
Crescent**	2,507	3,116	3,874
Forks	6,846	7,828	8,810
Sequim	11,076	13,168	15,260
Port Angeles**	26,759	27,959	29,214
TOTALS	56,464	62,883	69,507

*Linear projections based on 1950 – 1990 data from the U.S. Census.

**The Crescent and Port Angeles Census divisions were readjusted in the 1950 – 1990 time period to make it impossible to develop a linear forecast. The numbers in Table 2 are based on the respective areas average growth rate from 1980 to 1990.

Table 3. UGA Population Projections
Linear Projection Model Based on Subarea (Table 2)*
	1990	2000	2010
City of Port Angeles	17,710	18,382	19,053
City of Sequim	3,616	4,650	5,683
City of Forks	2,862	3,453	4,044

*City population projections were based on U.S. Census information dating back to 1970.

Table 4. Unincorporated UGA Population Projections
Based on 1980 – 1990 Area Average Growth Rate
	1990	2000	2010
Sunland	987	1,288	1,500
Carlsborg	655	885	1,120
Clallam Bay-Sekiu	644	702	777
Diamond Point-Sunshine Acres	374	488	660
Joyce	80	99	124
TOTAL	2,740	3,462	4,181

Based on the goal in subsection (1)(c) of this section, population allocations or adjustments to linear projection populations will encourage a trend towards a majority of new growth occurring with urban growth areas instead of in rural areas. The adjustments for incorporated cities would provide for a reversal of the urban-rural growth trends evident in the 1970 to 1990 time period. The Clallam Bay-Sekiu population projection was also adjusted upward to account for two (2) expansions of the Clallam Bay Corrections Center staff, one of which would occur between 1990 and the year 2000 and another between 2000 and 2010.

Table 5. UGA Population Projections Readjusting from Rural to Urban Growth
	1990	2000	2010
City of Port Angeles	17,710	18,577	19,674
City of Sequim	3,616	4,677	5,948
City of Forks	2,862	3,453	4,044
Clallam Bay-Sekiu	644	772	847
TOTAL	24,832	27,479	30,513

The following table outlines the allocation of total twenty (20) year County growth (Table 2: 13,043) to urban areas (Table 5 and Table 4 except for Clallam Bay-Sekiu) and rural areas (Table 2 minus urban growth). This shows that approximately fifty-four (54) percent of the new County growth is allocated to urban areas, whereas historical trends show that since 1970 the urban growth has declined from a fifty-six (56) percent share of the population to forty-three (43) percent. These population allocations reverse the trend back to 1970, which was the beginning of significant growth in Clallam County.

Table 6. Rural and UGA Population Projections*
	1990	2000	2010	Total Twenty (20) Year Growth
UGA Population	26,928	30,199	33,917
UGA Growth	—	3,271	3,718	6,989
Rural Population	29,536	32,684	35,590
Rural Growth	—	3,148	2,906	6,054

(2) The County should designate as urban growth areas those unincorporated areas already characterized by urban growth and not in proximity to existing cities; provided, that such areas meet the principles established for UGAs and that appropriate service providers are identified to provide the specified urban governmental services.

(3) UGAs shall include areas characterized by urban growth adjacent to existing city boundaries and physical features shall be considered in establishing UGA boundaries.

(4) It is expected that net densities will increase as urban growth and development occurs within the UGA, and the UGA boundary should be established toward this objective. Included in this principle is the requirement that urban growth areas develop specific strategies and programs to encourage infill development and redevelopment of identified underdeveloped lands.

(5) Land designated for commercial or industrial uses which encourage adjacent urban development shall not be located outside a UGA.

(6) The amount of acreage designated for commercial, industrial or other nonresidential uses within a UGA adjacent to a city boundary shall be based upon the land use element and economic development element of the city’s Comprehensive Plan.

(7) The amount of acreage designated for commercial uses, industrial uses, regional facilities or other nonresidential uses within a UGA not adjacent to a city boundary shall be based upon a reasonable level of service for the size of the UGA’s service area.

(8) Urban growth areas should be established to avoid critical areas, except where addressed as part of a comprehensive plan or critical areas ordinance. Wetlands and their buffers should be excluded from the developable land base in calculating the size of urban growth areas. Urban growth areas should not include designated resource lands unless the city or County has enacted a program authorizing transfer or purchase of development rights.

(9) Urban growth area designations shall consider the linkage with open space corridors within and between urban growth areas as required in the County-wide Planning Policy and the Growth Management Act.

(10) Consideration to the economic development goals within the County-wide and regional comprehensive plans shall be made when designating unincorporated UGAs not in proximity to existing cities.

(11) The County shall consider the property rights of landowners with existing urban residential, commercial, industrial land use designations, and existing locations of urban governmental services, in designating urban growth areas.