(1) Projected Population. Please see the population analysis in the Land Use Element.

(2) Projected Housing Construction Demand. The average number of dwelling units constructed per year according to Table 9 is 17.1 for the years 1988 to 1993, inclusive. This average is not an entirely appropriate for projected construction because of the inclusion of mobile home set-ups. Although there are several mobile home set-ups done every year, there are also several mobile homes that are moved out of their space as well. There is no available data to indicate how many homes are moved per year. However, due to the significant amount of subdividing occurring within the last couple years and the availability of low interest mortgages it is anticipated that dwelling units will be created in the next few years at an accelerated pace. This increase, as clearly reflected in the years 1991 through 1993, more than offsets the artificially high rate of dwelling creation caused by mobile home set-ups. For purposes of projecting future housing, therefore, the total amount of dwelling units created per year will be taken as seventeen (17), the average number of homes constructed or set up per year from 1988 to 1993, inclusive.

Table 10 below serves as a statistical projection for overall housing needs. The table incorporates the population projection of the land use element (59.1 people per year) and the projected housing construction rate of seventeen (17) dwellings per year. These two (2) factors can be used to determine if future housing construction will keep pace with demand. As shown in Table 10, average household size would have to increase at the rate of 0.1 per year for future housing needs to be met. The trend at the County level has been a decrease of 0.1 persons per household from 1980 to 1990. However, household size in the City of Forks is subject to different influences than that in the rest of Clallam County. Influences in the City of Forks that mitigate towards an increase in household size are a relatively young population that is starting families and a large low income population on public assistance and/or employed in low paying forest jobs that must share housing to reduce living expenses. Influences that mitigate towards a decrease in household size include an aging population, an increase in prosperity, an influx in retirees drawn by inexpensive housing and low crime, and the emigration of high school graduates who cannot find jobs in Forks. On balance, the RPC believes that household size will continue to increase at a slight rate over the next twenty (20) years. The increase in household size reflected in Table 10 reflects such an increase. Consequently, housing construction should meet the projected need for housing. Although there does have to be a slight increase in housing to compensate for the unacceptably low vacancy rate for owner-occupied housing, the amount of housing to make up for this difference is statistically insignificant in the foregoing analysis.

(3) Public Facilities and Services Needs Analysis. New residential units will need to be connected to water, sanitary disposal, solid waste disposal, transportation, electric, gas and telecommunications services. In addition, existing facilities such as schools, fire protection, and police protection will need to be evaluated to ensure that they can handle the additional demand. The analysis of the capacity of public facilities and services has been adjusted to reflect the anticipated changes in the housing pattern. The condition and capacity of public facilities and services is detailed in the transportation element and the land use element. The schedule for financing such services is in the capital facilities element.

(4) Land Availability Analysis. This analysis examines all of the land that is available for residential land uses under the current zoning and development ordinances. This provides an initial estimate of the City’s ability to meet its housing needs. It also clarifies the ability under the current regulations to develop a pattern with a sense of community, safety, and access to commercial and employment centers. The data in this analysis was acquired from Clallam County, which did an inventory of Forks land uses in 1992 for purposes of its urban growth area studies.

(5) Affordable Housing Needs Analysis. A family is paying an unacceptable amount of their income for housing if their cost for housing exceeds thirty (30) percent of their income. Financing an average family home in the City of Forks requires a yearly income of $19,500, however only $6,721 per year needs to be earned to afford an average mobile home in Forks. Less than ten (10) percent of Forks households could not afford to purchase an average priced mobile home. It is unclear how many of these households could afford a less than average priced mobile home.

Rentals are less affordable for Forks residents. The median rent according to the 1990 U.S. Census for the Forks area was $272 per month, which would require a $10,880 per year household income if thirty (30) percent of income is used for rent. The households that cannot afford this type of rent constitute about twenty (20) percent (about 185 households) of City of Forks households. Available data does not indicate if there are enough rentals that are within the budget of these 185 households, however there are sixty-four (64) subsidized housing units in the City of Forks which would account for a third of these households.

Even though 9.5 percent of Forks’ population is on public assistance and Forks has an almost twenty (20) percent unemployment rate (this statistic was determined by the Washington State Employment Security Department – it does not include persons whose employment benefits have expired or persons who are self-employed), it is clear that affordable housing is not a great problem for the City of Forks due to the abundance of relatively inexpensive housing at this time. Affordability may decline, however, as the rate of new construction increases over the next twenty (20) years. Although affordable housing is not currently a major problem, quality of housing clearly is. With twenty-seven (27) percent of its housing in poor or fair condition, the City of Forks should focus its housing activities upon the rehabilitation of its current housing stock while at the same time monitoring the affordability of its housing as housing construction accelerates.