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This section of the land use element explains expected development trends and identifies potential development problems and opportunities. The plan for growth and development in the City of Forks was developed based on the following analyses:

Population and Demographics: An analysis corresponding to the residential land use inventory

Economic Conditions: An analysis corresponding to the commercial and industrial lands inventory

Physical Conditions: An analysis corresponding to the physical description

Amenities: An analysis corresponding to the recreational lands, open spaces, and part of the public facilities inventory

Infrastructure: An analysis corresponding to part of the public facilities inventory which examines overall land use compatibility, and coordinates the land usage with the other elements of the Comprehensive Plan (housing, transportation, capital facilities, and utilities)

(1) Analysis of Population and Demographics. The analysis of local population and demographic trends is important for a broad understanding of the community and to anticipate future needs. The analysis of population projections for the next twenty (20) years is based on a linear projection factor derived from historical Census data from the Forks subarea, as defined by the Census Bureau.

(a) Population Changes.

(i) Population Changes Over the Past Fifty (50) Years. Since 1950, the population of Forks has increased from 1,120 residents to 3,280 residents. The population has varied dramatically over the years, with both positive and negative gains and no discernible pattern. In addition, the annexation of new territory by the City of Forks has resulted in an increase in the City’s population base.

Table 3. City of Forks

Historical Population Growth

Year

Population

Population Change

Annex

Growth

1950

1,120

N/A

1960

1,156

36

1970

1,628

472

364

144

1974

1,867

239

1980

3,060

1,193

978

454

1984

2,849

211

1990

3,280

431

478

-258

Totals

1,820

340

(ii) Source of Population Changes. The changes in population in Forks tied are to the timber industry. Annexations also account for increases in population as follows: 1960-1970 annexations increased population by 364, 1974-1980 annexations increased population by 978, and 1984-1990 annexations increased population by 478.

(iii) Projected Population Changes. The growth in population over the next twenty (20) years has been estimated using the linear projection growth factor used to determine future land use demand (see Table 4), which is a population growth of 74.9 people per year (59.1 people per year for the City of Forks and 15.8 people per year for unincorporated Forks UGA). For a more detailed discussion of population projections for the Forks area please reference Appendix A, 20-Year Population Forecast and Distribution.

The population projections are also for the Forks urban growth area, as opposed to the City population data, as reflected in Table 4 below. Table 4 does not include historical population data for the unincorporated portion of the Forks urban growth area because only a 1990 figure was available. This number, 1,081 persons, was taken from the table in Page 9 of Clallam County’s “Forks Urban Growth Area Analysis,” dated January, 1993.

Table 4. Forks Urban Growth Area

Population Estimate

Year

Population Estimate

1990

4,361 actual

2000

5,110

2010

5,859

2015

6,234

Population figures for Forks tend to vary, due to the transient nature of the community. Movement trends are tied to timber harvesting, prison staff making career advancements, prison inmate followers, growth in the Hispanic community and changes in government budgets. Diversification efforts offer the potential of a more stabilized population growth, as well as economy. In addition, the current trend of “urban flight” will result in an increase of new residents in the FUGA as well as the surrounding areas.

Current advances in communication technologies may also result in an increase in population, as more individuals realize that they can live in rural area and conduct their business affairs via telephone and computer. Finally, the region has seen an increase in retirees moving into the FUGA. As the nation’s population continues to age, it is foreseeable that retirees from other areas will move into the FUGA.

(b) Demographics. This section develops a more complete picture of the people expected to reside in Forks. Portions of the demographic analysis are based on County-wide data and are not particular to the City of Forks. However, the level of specificity is adequate to assess the general needs of the population.

(i) Development Patterns. Settlement has occurred around the City, with the density of settlement increasing towards the center of the City. The ownership of large tracts of land by a few individuals has prevented growth and preserved a picturesque, rural setting on the east side of the City. Low interest rates and a high demand for housing have apparently spurred several subdivision applications in the east end of Forks in the early 1990’s creating as many as fifty (50) new lots. Construction of stick homes is relatively rare, since used homes are inexpensive in comparison. Most of the new subdivisions are intended for manufactured housing.

(ii) Age Distribution of Population. The average age in the City of Forks is thirty-two (32) years old, which differs markedly from the average age in Sequim, which is over fifty-five (55). Such a young population indicates a need for affordable housing for first time home buyers.

(iii) Home Ownership. According to 1990 Census data, fifty-one (51) percent of Forks homes are owner occupied, forty-one (41) percent are rentals and eight (8) percent are vacant. Only 3.9 percent of the vacant units are for rent.

(iv) Household Size. The average household size in the City of Forks is 2.68 persons per household, which is higher than the Clallam County average of 2.4 persons per household.

(v) Education. The proportion of Forks with a high school diploma (seventy-two (72) percent) is only slightly lower than the proportion for the State as a whole (seventy-eight (78) percent). This supports the expectation that County public school facilities are adequate. More persons in Forks have an associate degree than a college degree. This is probably influenced by the proximity of Peninsula College and its satellite campus in the City of Forks.

(vi) Per Capita Median Income. According to 1990 Census data the current average income per household in Forks is $29,950. This is an indication of the buying power of the average resident and is important in determining the type of housing, retail business, recreational opportunities, capital improvements, and feasible transit alternatives that will be appropriate for the community.

(c) Residential Land Use Needs. As noted in the housing element of this Comprehensive Plan, there is an identified need for quality affordable housing of all types. See the affordable housing element for further details.

Residential zoning developed by both the City and the County should include, as an option to conventional development and zoning, development regulations to allow flexible lot sizes with the same number of lots. Large residential lots may have farm animals according to City and County zoning ordinances.

(2) Analysis of Economic Conditions. Historically Forks’ major source of revenue came from timber harvesting. Reduction in timber supply has forced the area to seek means of diversifying its economic base. During this transition both the Clearwater Correction Center and the Clallam Bay Correction Center aided in the stability of the Forks economy. In addition, federal money aided in the retraining of displaced timber workers, as well as assisting with the social problems that accompany high unemployment.

(a) Employment Trends by Industry. While timber harvesting is not expected to return to its former 1970’s levels, it is expected that some degree of timber harvesting will occur.

The City is actively seeking ways to diversify its economy to mitigate the losses caused by drastic reductions in timber harvesting. Much effort has been put into creating an industrial park and wood drying operation that will facilitate secondary wood manufacturing. The Industrial Park’s primary tenant, Portac Inc., is expecting to begin operations in the early part of 1995.

While tourism is not identified as a timber industry replacement, it is being viewed as a necessary element of Forks’ effort to diversify its economic base. A three (3) hour drive from the highly populated I-5 corridor positions the Westend of Clallam County as an ideal “get away location.” In 1994, the Forks Visitor’s Information Center assisted over 23,810 visitors, answered over 2,400 telephone inquiries, and mailed over 850 letters in response to requests for information. In addition a Westend Office of the North Olympic Peninsula Visitor & Convention Bureau has been established. Although tourism is growing, there is a concern that its growth may result in low paying jobs.

(b) Unemployment Rate. Gross estimates of unemployment based upon data from the Washington State Employment Security Department show that the City of Forks in 1991 had a nineteen (19) percent unemployment rate compared with eight (8) percent of the rest of Clallam County. This is the most direct indication of the need for economic development and redevelopment.

(c) Regional Employment Conditions. Drastic reductions in timber supply have displaced numerous timber workers. Many of the jobs currently available in the City of Forks are in government. Washington State Department of Corrections, with two (2) facilities located within an hour of Forks, is the largest employer for the region. The Department’s Clallam Bay Correctional Center employs 417 people. The Quillayute Valley School District is the second largest employer with 202 employees. Other major employers include the Forks Community Hospital and the Washington State Department of Natural Resources. Forks also has several motels and restaurants that capitalize on tourism, as well as two (2) large general merchandise stores.

(d) Industry Growth. The City is expecting an increase in industry related to secondary wood products manufacturing due to the addition of a wood drying operation. Consequently, more land will be needed for industrial uses and this need will be met by the newly created Forks Industrial Park.

The service sector is a growing employer in Forks due to an increase in population and tourism. Since many of the service sector businesses are dependent upon tourism, more commercial land will need to be available along SR 101.

(e) Future Commercial Zoning within the FUGA. The commercial designation used on the Comprehensive Plan Map indicates the areas of future commercial development. The commercial category is for land to be used for commercial purposes of all types, including land used for retail and wholesale trade, offices, hotels, motels, RV parks, restaurants, service outlets, automobile service stations, repair facilities and storage. This category is further divided as follows:

(i) Heavy Commercial. This is high intensity land use including the central business district of the Forks UGA. This designation encourages development along arterials such as SR 101. Some residential capacity, preferably high density, is permitted in this designation.

(ii) Moderate Commercial. This is a moderate intensity land use that is immediately adjacent to the heavy commercial area. It includes commercial nodes and strip commercial areas with sufficient roadways to immediately connect this area with arterials. Residential zoning is permitted in this designation, preferably medium to high density units.

(iii) Light Commercial. This is a light intensity land use designation that incorporates neighborhood small businesses and home based businesses/offices. This designation should be used to provide transition between commercial zones and residential zones. This designation may overlap with low to medium residential zoning designations.

The use of the intensity in the above commercial zoning designations incorporates numerous factors to be considered by the City and County zoning bodies. In determining the level of intensity associated with a commercial zone, the zoning body should at minimum consider the issues of traffic, parking, noise, sewage, lighting, and pollutants.

(3) Analysis of Physical Conditions. Planning that considers the environmental limitations of the area avoids relatively expensive site modifications for development of certain lands. Furthermore, this type of planning is essential in order to preserve critical areas and natural resource lands. Fortunately, the Forks UGA is relatively flat with few critical areas. According to the 1993 Clallam County Forks Urban Growth Area Analysis, eighty-two (82) acres in the City of Forks and 400 acres in the unincorporated portion of the UGA has development limitations due to the presence of critical areas. (See Maps 1 – 3) These 482 acres only represent 11.6 percent of the 4,157 acres in the Forks UGA. Consequently, physical conditions do not create any significant constraints on land use planning.

(a) Geographic Constraints.

(i) Stormwater Constraints. Stormwater drainage is a problem throughout Forks, but is mostly alleviated by City and County development standards mandating on-site water retention. Some undeveloped ITT property just south of the Campbell’s Gravel pit is subject to flooding during intense rains, as is the practice field immediately east of the Forks High School. Development in these areas should be of low intensity.

(ii) Geologically Hazardous Areas. The foothills to the east and south of Forks constitute steep slopes, as are some banks of the Calawah River and the banks at the mouth of Elk Creek.

(iii) Aquifer Recharge Areas. Protection of recharge zones is important because the Forks water system and many local residents depend on wells for drinking water. The only high aquifer recharge areas in Forks are along the Calawah River.

(iv) Frequently Flooded Areas. The areas of the City of Forks within a floodplain are along the rivers and along a ditching system on G Street and Russell Road.

(v) Wetlands. The City and the County have wetlands inventory information from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) maps, and the Klein Sheldon inventory discussed above. As this inventory is not of sufficient accuracy, it is possible that other wetlands will be identified through future studies and through site-specific development evaluations. See the above discussion of wetlands.

(vi) Aquatic and Wildlife Habitat Conservation Areas. These areas are identified through the performance standards of the Forks Interim Critical Areas Ordinance. The only probable conservation area that is within the City of Forks is the Calawah River, which as a shoreline of State-wide significance under the Washington State Shoreline Management Act qualifies as an aquatic habitat conservation area.

(4) Analysis of Amenities. The quality of life in a community is greatly enhanced by the amenities the City has to offer. These amenities include the availability of schools, churches, community facilities, cemeteries and traditional social services, as well as the aesthetic quality of the city, and the cultural and recreational opportunities.

(a) Open Space. As a result of the GMA mandate, the RPC devised a method of designating certain lands as open space based upon either the association of the land with wildlife or critical areas, or the access to the lands by the general public. The use of this category is:

Limited to utilitarian open areas (mostly buffer areas) to preserve critical areas, which are identified through performance standards in the Forks Interim Critical Areas Ordinance; or

Used to designate lands associated with fish and wildlife habitats that the community would like to see protected wherever possible and with little or no interference with private ownership; or

Used to designate lands within the Forks UGA available to the public for recreational purposes.

The definitions of open space to be used in any subsequent zoning should read as follows:

(i) Open Space – Public Access. Lands designated as open space public shall include City parks and other real property designated for recreational uses by the citizens of the UGA. Public access is the primary indicator of areas designated as open space public.

(ii) Open Space – Limited Access. Lands designated as open space private are lands associated with a critical area, fish, or wildlife habitat. These lands are not to be zoned whereby the public is permitted absolute access for recreational purposes, unless owned by the City or the County and such access is provided by said body. These lands will not be restricted from being used for forest management purposes, unless (1) there is a City or County ownership interest in these lands; and (2) affirmative action is taken by the City or County by passage of an ordinance to limit such practices on such lands. These lands may, as permitted by law, be harvested, used as staging areas for emergency services to include firefighting activities, used in connection with sewer treatment, used for research purposes, and used for other purposes permitted by law. These lands, regardless of ownership, may be restricted with regard to access by the general public.

Additionally, subsequent zoning ordinances should be written in such a manner that incentives (such as increases in density) be made for developers who incorporate open space public lands into their developments.

(b) Condition of Parks and Recreational Land Uses. As discussed in the inventory of public land use, the City has a large tract of land dedicated park and recreational uses. The City of Forks has approximately 17.1 acres of developed park land. Although this is far below the National Parks and Recreation Standard of ten (10) acres per thousand population, the park lands surrounding the Forks UGA should more than compensate for this deficiency. However, further study should be done to determine if the current availability of park land for public use could be expanded by development of land currently owned by the City or the County, or through future land acquisition.

The capital facilities element of this plan does call for the construction of a swimming pool in 1999 and land adjacent to the Forks Recreation Center should be zoned to permit this use.

(c) Information about Social Services. The inventory conducted in this element does not include information about the quality of the social services provided through the local government, educational facilities, churches, cemeteries, emergency services, and the library. However, the City recognizes that changes in the population will effect these services and will require the planning of appropriate facilities. The agents managing each of these facilities need to work with the City to incorporate their future plans with this Comprehensive Plan.

(5) Analysis and Capacity of Infrastructure.

(a) City Hall. The facilities for public administration were expanded and remodeled in 1993 and are currently in good condition. More parking space is necessary but it is anticipated that there is enough vacant land surrounding Forks City Hall to accommodate this need. No significant expansion is anticipated in the next twenty (20) years.

(b) Water System. The quality of the water provided by Forks is good and the service meets present needs and those projected for the next twenty (20) years. The maximum capacity for the Forks Water System is 1,390 gallons per minute, as determined on page 9 of the City of Forks Comprehensive Water System Plan Update, dated February, 1989 (hereinafter referred to as Water Plan). According to 1987 statistics cited in the Water Plan, there are 2.75 persons per connection. The Water Plan also references a Washington State Department of Social and Health Services recommended daily connection usage rate of 800 gallons per day. Utilizing this data and the projected population for 2015 of this plan of 6,234 persons in the Forks UGA, the water usage for 2015 would be 1,259 gallons per minute, which is below the 1,390 gallon per minute capacity. Note that the Forks water service area conforms relatively closely to the Forks UGA since it was one of the primary factors used in delineating the UGA.

(c) Wastewater Disposal Facilities. The Forks sewer service area only comprise the central portion of the City of Forks. In 1994 the sewage treatment plant was at sixty-seven (67) percent capacity and could reach 100 percent capacity if the vacant lots within the sewer service area were developed. As of 1995, there are no plans to increase the capacity of the sewage treatment plant. However, additional land in the area to the west and southwest of the current facility has been designated as open space limited access, providing the City, upon acquiring ownership, with the ability to expand the current facility if required. A bond was proposed about ten (10) years ago for added sewage treatment capacity and was rejected by the voters.

(d) Solid Waste Disposal. Solid waste collection is provided by a private company currently under contract with the City of Forks for the Forks area and regulated by the Washington State Utilities and Transportation Commission for the unincorporated Forks UGA. Residents of the UGA can also deposit their solid waste at the Lake Creek transfer station which is situated a few minutes north of town. Solid waste from the private companies is transported to the Port Angeles Landfill, which is nearing capacity. Forks is requiring its garbage company to initiate a recycling program and this garbage company has plans to open a solid waste transfer station in the Forks Industrial Park.

(e) Medical and Emergency Facilities. The Forks Community Hospital serves the FUGA and Westend of Clallam County. In 1993, the hospital completed an $8,000,000 expansion that will satisfy the needs of the community for the next twenty (20) years. In addition a well trained volunteer ambulance corps provides twenty-four (24) hour service.

(f) Police and Fire Protection. The provision of safe residential and commercial areas improves the quality of life for current residents, and makes the City more attractive for new residents and businesses. The City is able to provide twenty-four (24) hour police protection and has an excellent volunteer fire crew composed of forty-five (45) members who have a proven response time unmatched by many paid fire departments.

(g) Public Education Facilities. The City anticipates that the current educational facilities may not be sufficient to meet the anticipated growth in student populations in the next twenty (20) years. Currently, the Quillayute Valley School District is studying the feasibility of expanding the Forks High School. Sufficient real property is available for such an expansion, assuming that State funding can be obtained.

(h) Library. The Forks Branch of the North Olympic Library System occupies a large building on Main Street which should adequately serve the western portion of Clallam County for the next twenty (20) years. The Library’s circulation exceeds 7,000 items per month. Services include children’s and adult programs, homebound patron services, meeting facilities, and much more. In addition, the Library has pursued technological advances resulting in its patrons being able to access the world’s “information highway.”

(i) Transportation Facilities. Various types of land uses will need different types of transportation, and will place different demands on the transportation system. Residential areas need access to employment and commercial centers, industrial enterprises need access to supplier and consumer markets, and transportation corridors are often used to extend public services and utilities. The plan projects future transportation needs according to the Future Land Use Plan.

(j) Stormwater Facilities. The City’s stormwater system is composed of a network of public and private facilities. These include wetlands and drainage ways, publicly owned ditches, culverts, and swales. Current facilities are inadequate to handle substantial increases in stormwater drainage associated with increased development. Efforts should be made by both the City and the County to study and implement improvements to the stormwater drainage system.

(k) Process for Siting Essential Public Facilities. Essential public facilities which are determined by the State Office of Financial Management will be subject to the following siting process. When essential public facilities are proposed the City will appoint an advisory City-Wide Site Evaluation Committee composed of citizen members selected to represent a broad range of interest groups and expertise. The committee is also required to include one individual with technical expertise relating to the particular type of facility. The committee will develop specific siting criteria for the proposed project and identify, analyze, and rank potential project sites. The Committee will establish a reasonable work schedule for completion of this task.

(i) Considerations in Evaluating Project Sites. The City-Wide Site Evaluation Committee will at a minimum consider the following:

Existing city standards for siting such facilities.

Existing public facilities and their effect on the community.

The relative potential for reshaping the economy, environment, and the community character.

The location of resource lands or critical areas.

Essential public facilities should not be located beyond the urban growth area unless they are self-contained and do not require the extension of urban governmental services.

(ii) Community Involvement. The City will use timely press releases, newspaper notices, public information meetings, and public hearings to notify citizens in all relevant jurisdictions.

The City will notify adjacent jurisdictions of the proposed project and will solicit review and comment on the recommendations of the City-Wide Site Evaluation Committee.

(iii) Consistency with Existing Plans and Regulations. Although the City’s Comprehensive Plan and development regulations will not preclude the siting of essential public facilities, the City will adopt a process including standards in order to ensure reasonable compatibility and consistency.